As we began writing this Policy Brief, the US and Israel had started an illegal war in Iran and Lebanon, dubbed Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, which had rapidly escalated into a region-wide conflict with significant global consequences that were felt as far away as the South Pacific. According to news reports, the war in Iran cost approximately US$11.3bn¹ in the first six days, with the White House seeking a 42% increase in military spending amounting to a $1.5 trillion baseline defense budget for the 2027 fiscal year. More than 7,300 people have so far been killed in Iran and Lebanon² and children were the first victims of the US’s supposed precision bombing. The United Nations children’s agency, UNICEF³, reported on 31 March 2026 that the “intensifying conflict” had killed or injured 1,100 children. Nearly 4 million people in Iran and Lebanon have been displaced⁴, not to mention the humanitarian atrocities that continue in Palestine and across the region.

In response, Iran escalated retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf and seized control of the Strait of Hormuz through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and liquified gas are transported out of the Middle East, skyrocketing the prices of oil and gasoline above US$100 a barrel, and creating global economic turmoil. While people around the world suffered increasing costs and energy insecurity, the world’s top 100 oil and gas producers banked an estimated more than $30 million every hour in excess profit in the first month of the US-Israeli war on Iran⁵. The three largest European companies Shell, Total Energies, and BP have seen the highest jump in profits betting on price changes from war-driven volatility. The International Energy Agency ordered the release of the largest government oil reserves in its history to calm markets. A fragile cease-fire was announced; however, no resolution has yet been reached.